A Common Fan’s Sports Diary

What are the odds that Rafa's time at Anfield is over?

At the beginning of the 2009-10 season, the Liverpool faithful had hoped that their team’s gradual progression back to the top of the Premiership would finally culminate in a league title. Instead it’s turned into a horror story of mammoth proportions. At the time of writing, Liverpool are on a three match losing streak and have four defeats in their opening nine premiership games – a statistic which makes them odds-on favourite not to win the league this year.

They have two crucial games coming up – a Champions League clash against Lyon and a premiership battle against bitter rivals Man United.

If the results in these two games don’t go in their favour, then it will open a whole new world of possibilities at Anfield, most of them frightening for the club faithful.

As a United fan, it gives me great pleasure to think of those possibilities and to estimate their odds. So without much ado, let’s play odds makers – All under the assumption that the next two games are not going to go as per plan for Liverpool.

What are the odds?

That Rafa Benitez is gone in a month’s time?

Even odds. With Rick Parry gone, Rafa has nobody to blame anymore. His stubborn refusal to change his zonal marking tactics will give extra fuel to his critics. His only saving grace will be the fact that the owners Gillett and Hicks are cheapsters who would rather continue with Rafa, than bear the cost of paying out his entire contract and getting a new manager, who would also want a fresh transfer kitty.

That Gillett and Hicks are gone before the end of the season?

2-1. another season without the league title and being forced to start all over again would be too much for the American owners. They are here for purely financial reasons and there is a good chance that Gillett and Hicks will decide to cut their losses and move on. There is interest from the Middle –east and if a serious offer comes through, Gillett and Hicks will take their bags and run.

That the sheikhs will take over at Anfield?

3-1. Just like the bad times will force the Americans to run, it will give the sheikhs a good time to make a move. Liverpool are hugely popular in the Middle- east and the sheikhs are one of the few with the financial muscle to buy a club as massive as Liverpool.  But there is an outside chance that an upstart Russian or someone from the South East Asia will stake a claim. I wouldn’t even rule out a bid from Anil Ambani.

That Torres will be gone by the end of the season?

10-1. depends on who takes over and where Benitez goes. If Benitez ends up at a big Spanish Club (read Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini fails to meet the expectations of Florentino Perez), then there is a massive chance that Torres will follow him.  Real can be expected to make an outrageous offer for Torres and in today’s cash-strapped times, few owners can refuse that.

Will they be standing together a year from now?

That Alberto Aquilani will make less than five first team appearances for Liverpool?

6-1. Only Benitez knows why Aquilani was bought and if he goes there will be no one at Anfield to appreciate and understand the Italian. A new manager will be impatient and expect Alberto to make an immediate impression, failing which he will be sent on his way.

What are the chances they are re-united at another club?

That Steven Gerrard will leave Liverpool in a couple of seasons?

20-1.The opportunity to bring back the league title to Anfield is Gerrard’s greatest driving force. With that opportunity gone, at least in the near future, coupled with the possible departure of close pal Torres, Gerrard’s resolve to spend his entire career at Anfield could finally break. But it’s still a long shot.

That Gerrard will one day join Man United?

10000-1. it’s almost impossible to imagine Gerrard in a Man United shirt but stranger things have happened in football.  Gerrard will have no shortage of suitors if he decides to leave and Fergie will be one of them.   It will only happen if he wants to stay in England and Chelsea and Arsenal don’t make a bid for him. A move to Old Trafford will tarnish his status in Liverpool lore and Gerrard will risk that only if he has absolutely no options left.

That Liverpool are the ones to drop out of the top four?

2-1. Liverpool look the most likely ones to drop out and the other three look safe bets to finish in the top four.  Unlike previous years, there are a bunch of strong challengers this year. But if Liverpool are knocked out Europe and the FA Cup early, then there is no way a challenger will usurp them this season.

That Jose Mourinho is the next boss at Anfield.

7-1. Jose’s the only EPL winning manager available and that will tempt Liverpool. If given an opportunity and a decent transfer budget, then the ‘Special One’ will not think twice about returning to his beloved premiership.

That an Italian is the next boss at Anfield?

10-1. Capello has turned England around and Trapattoni has worked wonders with the Irish. Previously, lesser Italians like Ranieri and Vialli have had decent stints at Chelsea. The Spanish experiment worked well, so why not try an Italian this time.  There are enough top class Italian managers available. My favourite would be Mancini. He has previously delivered at a league title – starved club.

That the strike pair of David Ngog and Andriy Voronin will start a game in the Premiership?

5-1. will be the poster moment for the slew of mediocre purchases made by Benitez. Wonder how many premiership defenders will be quaking in their boots at the sight of Voronin and Ngog? This could happen very soon if another striker gets injured or if Ryan Babel continues to disappoint.

That Liverpool will make a shock bid for Xabi Alonso?

5-1. they sold him for 16 million but by now they have realized how priceless he was. The chances of a bid depend on Alonso’s form at Real and the state of the Liverpool midfield. If Alonso disappoints, although it’s quite unlikely, then Liverpool might be encouraged to make a bid. It will also depend on whether Aquilani or any other future midfield signing can do all the unnoticed and under-appreciated little things that Alonso did.

That Benitez changes the zonal marking system?

10-1. most people at Anfield are critical of the zonal marking system. Until now Rafa was in a strong position and had his way. But what will he do if the defeats continue to pile on and the bosses give him an ultimatum – change the defensive system or move. Will he swallow his pride for the sake of continuing as Liverpool manager?

That Benitez joins another Premiership Club?

25-1. Abramovich could be tempted if Ancelotti fails to bring home the Champions League. Benitez’ tactical nous in European competition is well regarded. The other candidates could be Man City and Tottenham Hotspurs.  Both have money and ambition. Their current managers can take them into the top four but they will need somebody of the calibre of Benitez to aim higher. Rafa has enjoyed England and might stay back if the right gig came along.

That Liverpool win both games and this entire article is merely a fantasy exercise?

3-1. Liverpool always come through when the chips are down. Plain and simple.

To be a BIG Club Man City first need a BIG Manager. Like one of these guys

When Jose Mourinho went to Inter, the likes of Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard were ready to go join him.

When Luis Felipe Scolari came to Stamford Bridge, Deco and Bosingwa followed

As soon as Carlo Ancelotti became manager of Chelsea, rumours of Kaka and Pirlo joining the Blues started doing the rounds

In Mark Hughes’ reign at Man City, the only player willing to come to Eastlands purely because of the manager has been Roque Santa Cruz.

See the difference.

Forget tactical acumen and man management skills, Mark Hughes is light years away from the likes of Mourinho, Scolari and Ancelotti, when it comes to having the persona and the resume to attract big name players to come and play for them.

In the case of Man City this becomes an even bigger handicap because they are a second rung club – not big enough in their own right for the big names – a club which for all its riches has managed to sign just a single world-class player; and that guy supposedly thought he was joining Man United and often appears to be disenchanted at the club. The club has suffered the humiliation of having its overtures for the likes of Kaka and Buffon turned down in spite of tabling bids which would have dwarfed previous transfer records. And that too in today’s recessionary times.

You can argue that Mourinho, Scolari and Ancelotti can attract these players only because they have coached them previously and the superstars are very comfortable playing for them again. But that is exactly the point that we are trying to make.

Big time players want to move to a club primarily for two reasons – either because of the club’s name or because of the star power of the other players playing for the club. Man City have neither. They are the poor cousins of Man United, have never won anything and I don’t know any super stars who are dying to rub shoulders with the likes of Stephen Ireland and Richard Dunne.

They cannot change their history or their stature overnight. And they don’t even have European football to offer.

As for raising the quality of their players, that is exactly what City are trying to do in the first place -they are caught in a classic catch-22 situation. Until, they get the first lot of quality players, other big names are not going to join.

That brings us back to our original argument now that we have exhausted all the other options.

The most sure shot way of getting the first lot of superstars is to target the ones who are willing to move with their manager. And the easiest way of doing that is by getting a manager who has managed a clutch of big name players. Once City have their manager and their first set of big names, the others will automatically follow. They will be assured in the knowledge that this club is now on the move in the right direction.

Additionally having a big name manager helps in keeping the inflated egos of the superstars in check. Do we have any evidence to believe that Mark Hughes can handle the tantrums and mood swings of players like Didier Drogba or Cristiano Ronaldo or Zlatan Ibrahimovic? Especially after having seen Robinho toy with him on a regular basis.

That leaves us with one last question.

How hard will it be to get a world class manager?

Not too hard at all.

There are scores of great managers around. In addition to big bucks, which is quite an incentive in itself, City also offer any manager a fresh challenge, a complete free hand to run things and an opportunity to build a world beating club. Great managers have fallen for far less.

It is difficult to understand the reluctance of the Abu Dhabi Sheikhs in parting with Mark Hughes. Even from a purely footballing standpoint, he has fared worse than his predecessor Sven – Goran Eriksson and that too with a far bigger budget.

Time is running out fast. Ideally City should have moved into the top 6 in the 2008-09 premiership season and put on a good show in the Europa League to establish their credentials as a club growing in stature. That would have helped in attracting big time talent. Now they are hopelessly running from one agent to another, chequebook in hand. They will end up signing a bunch of mediocre names or some talented malcontents, much like their efforts in the January transfer window. With Florentino Perez back at Real Madrid and Chelsea looking to start afresh under Ancelotti, the bidding war for big names is going to be hotly contested.

Man City with Mark Hughes doesn’t have a chance to compete with these big boys.

That is unless they decide to get a big boy of their own.

Does he see his dreams coming true?

Manchester City are the richest football club in the world. They are also perhaps the only club with tons of money to spend in the January transfer window. The clubs Abu-Dhabi based owners want to make it the biggest most successful one in the football world. And they have made it abundantly clear that money will not come in the way of making this a reality.

Man City have before them the examples of Real Madrid and Chelsea – clubs which have won numerous honours on the back of massive spending to bolster their squads.

But after three weeks of transfer activity it seems Man City have no ambitions of matching or bettering the likes of Chelsea or Real Madrid.

They seem to be headed more in the direction of aping the Newcastle Uniteds and Tottenham Hostpurs of the world.

What else can we make out of the signings of Wayne Bridge, Nigel De Jong and Craig Bellamy?

Would any of these players be ever coveted by one of the big Four in England or by one of the major European powerhouses?

Man City must be in fool’s paradise if they think they can challenge the big boys with players of this calibre.

Chelsea wouldn't have dreamt that they would make such a profit on Wayne Bridge

Wayne Bridge was an often unused second choice player at Chelsea – so Man City have basically picked up the leftovers of the second richest club in England.

Nigel De Jong wasn’t really setting the Bundesliga alight and Craig Bellamy has been an average to decent player at best – the kinds of which are already aplenty at Man City. Why add more mediocre players to an already mediocre bunch.

And it isn’t very clever of them to think that breaking the world record for a single transfer will make the January activity a super success. In the midst of all this mediocrity, they have been involved in a 105 million pound pursuit of Kaka – as if they had to somehow spend the full transfer budget, even if it was on just one player. Haven’t they realized already that one world class Brazilian hardly makes a difference? Their ambition is completely misplaced – Kaka even plays the same position as City’s current best player – countryman Robinho. Was he really worth spending so much on – I would have rather spent 35 million each on three world class players – Three players who would have been far better than Bridge, De Jong and Bellamy.

It looks as if their transfer activity is being handled by someone suffering from multiple personality disorder – one personality wants to become the biggest club in the world and goes after Kaka while the other target premiership survival and goes after Bellamy and Bridge.

Fulham president Al-Fayed had warned of the threat of Man City’s financial muscle. But the might of money also needs a marriage with tactical acumen to create a world-beating sports team. And at this point in time Man City football club seem to have all of the former and none of the latter.

This article was originally published on www.goal.com

As you can see Robinho's brain is empty

As news broke out that Kaka would move to Man City for a world record transfer fee of 105 million pounds, fellow Brazilian footballer Robinho was taken to task by his father for not spending enough time learning and acquiring knowledge. In what is definitely a moral victory for those who advocate that world class sportsmen should spend more hours reading and gaining knowledge, Robinho Senior argued that had his son utilized all the time he spent on Real Madrid’s bench (which was a lot of time because he was never in the playing eleven) in the pursuit of knowledge, he wouldn’t have been tricked into believing that he was actually going to Man United and not to Man City. And had that not happened, Robinho’s transfer would have also commanded the same wages and transfer money that Kaka’s movement to Man City will involve.

Grey haired Mark Huges in his playing days

It is believed that the gullible or shall we say ignorant Robinho didn’t even know that a club called Man City existed. When the current Man City manager Mark Hughes met him, the Welshman showed the Brazilian footage of his playing days with Man United and sold him the story that he was actually a player manager at Man United. That Hughes’s hair had already greyed during his playing days would have made the story convincing and fooled Robinho into believing it.

This story has taken Real Madrid and Spain by storm. Club president Ramon Calderon has taken responsibility for giving away Robinho for so less and resigned. He has however requested the media to report that he resigned because of vote rigging so that he can be seen as a cunning and manipulative man by the Public and not as a financial fool. The loss in export revenue to the tune of more than 50 million pounds and the subsequent loss in export duty have also been taken up in the Spanish Ministry of Trade. It is believed that a high-level committee will be set-up to handle player transfers in the future.

Italy on the other hand is celebrating. In addition to match-fixing and drugs, the football authorities have always let the players have a healthy dose of news and information. The AC Milan clubhouse has increased the number of subscriptions for news dailies and magazines and other clubs are expected to follow suit. The ministry of Education has set up a help-line which players can contact in case they need information on foreign clubs and managers.

It is also believed that after Kaka, AC Milan owner Silvio Berlusconi plans to offer, first Ronaldinho and then Beckham to the Sheikhs of the Abu Dhabi Group. Rich people have a fetish for collecting rare items and which football-mad sheikh would mind having in his collection, three of the finest Brazilian footballers who all happen to play in the same position. As for David Beckham, he will be used as a mascot in the derby games against United while wife Victoria will lead the chanting of the Club anthem. The overall package will net Berlusconi more than 300 million pounds. An out of job investment banker has warned the sheikhs that this will be enough money for the Italian to buy the Man City Football Club itself. After all, it was last sold for 200 million just a few months back. But Berlusconi has already scuppered such speculation by saying that he will never buy a club which doesn’t even have a trophy cabinet.

Kaka is well informed and even has reading glasses

Meanwhile Robinho has countered that had it not been for his mistake, Kaka would have also fallen for the same trick. He has in fact asked his international team-mate for a share of the 105 million pound transfer fees – he argues that he had to make the sacrifice for Brazilians to discover the truth about Man City. Kaka hasn’t agreed to give him any of the money but has decided to send him all his old books and newspapers and promised to help Robinho learn about the World when he joins him at Man City – after all it was his knowledge that set him apart from Robinho.

She made my wish come true and taught me a lesson in the process

I have always yearned for an Indian to own a premiership football club. My hopes were raised when Lakshmi Mittal was rumoured to have been interested in Birmingham City Football Club but sadly that never materialized. Then the Steel baron became a part owner in Queens Park Rangers and I started dreaming again – the club would surely be in the premiership soon with all the money that Mr. Mittal and fellow owners Bernie Ecclestone and Flavio Briatore would bring in. Once again I was left dreaming as the trio didn’t even make a feeble attempt to challenge the spending binges of the other super rich club owners.

After Mr. Mittal disappointed me, Anil Ambani briefly became my favourite rich Indian as he showed an interest in buy Newcastle FC. Unfortunately for me, as well as the Geordie fans who remained stuck with Mike Ashley, the price was too high and Ambani backed off. At this point I would have done anything for my wish to come true.

Then I discovered, much to my horror, that Arsenal was part –owned by Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, an Indian who married Sir Charles Bracewell-Smith – the man who originally owned the shares – an impressive 15.9 % in all. An Indian owner of Arsenal!!! .As a Manchester United fan, this is the last club I would want to support – and Chelsea and Liverpool for all their so-called rivalry with United are not even close.

What in the world was I supposed to do now – I was torn between my undying loyalties for the club which made me love the game of football in the first place and the other whose existence finally made my long cherished dream come true.

But was she technically an owner in spite of her impressive shareholding. Lady Nina wasn’t really running the Club and doing all the things that foreign owners do – like Thaksin Shinawatra almost forcing the inclusion of a few Thai players in the Man City side and bringing the club to his native land to play some matches. That I hadn’t even heard of her for so long and nothing had been made of Arsenal’s Indian connection strengthened my belief that she definitely did not satisfy the conditions of being an ‘owner’ and ‘Indian’.

But then again, this was clearly an argument put forth by the Man United side of my brain. We have celebrated the success of many other so-called Indians whose Indian-ness was no greater than that of Lady Nina’s. And we really don’t know what goes on in the Arsenal board room – she was on the board of directors and was probably playing a major role in the club’s decision making. She was not doing all the things that the former Thai premier had planned because she had the club’s best interests in mind – Shinawatra was trying to win over the people he had swindled for billions of dollars by giving Man City a Thai identity. She didn’t have to do that.

I continued to be torn.

Luckily, the recent sacking of Lady Nina from the Arsenal board of directors came as a lifeline. The dismissal has deeply hurt her and there is a very good chance that she could offer her shares to Alisher Usmanov – the wily Russian who has been trying to take over at the Club for so long. But irrespective of whether she hands out her shares or not – doing so would completely severe the Indian connection with the London club, I have ample reason not to support Arsenal. Not only have they treated the ‘Indian owner’ badly, the sacking from the board also ensures that the ‘Indian’ no longer has any say in the matters of the Club.

Arsenal no longer has an Indian owner. I am free to support Man United without any pangs of nationalistic guilt.

And now, before, another of United’s hated rivals finds an Indian owner, and puts me in another torturous quandary, I declare my wish to have been fulfilled. I spent more than a day under the knowledge that there was an Indian owner in the premiership and that is good enough for me. I no longer pine for an Indian owner.

Moral of the story – Why should I ask for something more, when the club that I have supported for 15 years, has given me all the pleasures that any football fan could have asked for. Man United fans have no right to ask for wishes.

Rafa's finally figured out the premiership puzzle

Think about it

The EPL is no longer a two horse race
Except for the occasional challenge offered by Arsenal, the fight for the title has largely come down to Manchester United and Chelsea these last few years. This year it’s a three horse race although Arsenal supporters would beg to differ. We are already in January – the season is 21 games old and Liverpool’s challenge hasn’t fizzled out yet. And it’s not just the points that they have accumulated, they have also managed to alter their fortunes against the other members of the old Big 4, winning both against Chelsea and United

There is no more a top 4
This has lasted even longer. Not since the time Bobby Robson was managing Newcastle, has a club looked so capable of breaking the big 4 hegemony. And again Aston Villa have not just collected points against the lower sides while struggling against the big boys. They have managed to stand up to them – in fact they have had Arsenal’s number, winning away and drawing at home. Another measure of their growing stature is the fact that some of their players like Agbanlahor and Barry could easily fit into any of the top 4 sides.

Promoted sides like Hull have had lots of moments to cheer

There are no clear cut poor teams
There are no favourites to go down this year. The promoted teams have played well and all three could very well stay up this season. The bottom three keeps changing every now and then. Teams like Tottenham, Sunderland, West Ham, Newcastle, Man City, Bolton and Stoke have all been near the relegation mark but have then hauled themselves up with a good run. The difference between number 11 Newcastle and number 20 West Brom is just 5 points and they had had the same number of wins. One bad run and the 11th placed team could be at the bottom. Struggling teams like Tottenham, Blackburn and West Ham have all turned their fortunes around with managerial changes. The absence of the usual whipping boys has made the premiership far more interesting

The domination of the top 4 has been reduced
In seasons gone by, the big 4 could just romp through against sides in the lower half of the table. They could rest their big guns and still stroll through for a win. Not anymore. The big sides have had it far more difficult, and that goes for home games as well. The likes of West Ham and Newcastle have drawn away against the big sides while they were still in relegation territory. While the draw percentage for the big boys has marginally increased to 29% from 265 in 2007-08 and 23% in 2008-09, there have been a lot of closely fought games where the big club has just eked out a win.

Managers like Harry have ensured that teams haven't struggled for too long

The middle of the table is also far more interesting
The games among the second rung sides have been far more watchable this year. I have started looking forward to games like Tottenham – West Ham, Man City- Wigan and Newcastle- Everton – something that I wouldn’t have last year. It is again owing to the greater balance of power amongst these sides, that, there have been lots more of closely fought encounters with last minute drama. You could pick any two sides out of Tottenham, Hull, Newcastle, Wigan, West Ham, Portsmouth, Fulham, Man City and Middlesbrough and expect a great game where the result could go either way. In a way, the early burst of manager sackings have helped – clubs haven’t continued to struggle for too long. New managers have come in turned things around quickly.

I am loving it. What about you?

The British Bulldog - back in control

The appointment of Fabio Capello was a telling blow to the pride of British football – a nation which once prided itself on having invented and then taught the game to the world had fallen on really bad times –so much so that they had no option but to depend on a foreigner to manage their national side. They had had a foreigner previously in Eriksson but the situation was far more desperate this time. A far cry from the days when British managers where much sought after.

The decline had already been evident in the domestic game – 3 of the top 4 clubs in the English premiership have been managed by foreigners for quite some time now. And others like Tottenham had also joined the fray. Considering the multi-cultural nature of the premiership, a fair sprinkling of foreigners is expected in the managerial ranks but suddenly no British manager seemed to be contending for the top jobs – in England or elsewhere.

The rot has been stemmed in 2008 and now the good old British manager is back in business. It started with the renaissance of Fulham under Roy Hodgson. And then Harry Redknapp showed with Tottenham that the British still knew some tricks that the Spanish (Juande Ramos) didn’t. The good showing continued with Joe Kinnear and Newcastle and although it is still early days, Blackburn already looks a different side under Big Sam Allardyce.

All of them truly epitomize what has traditionally been the strength of the British manager – their bulldog ways. They might not know the fancy tricks of modern football and lack the technical flair of continental managers but are tactically sound and know how to rally the men and rough it out. That most of the younger British managers like Roy Keane and Paul Ince were hopelessly bad is a corollary of the bulldog theory – quite obviously this style cannot be learnt in the coaching classroom – it comes with years of learning on the job. And hence the fledgling managers like Keane and Ince, who were still not fully versed in the good old British way, struggled miserably. Occasionally there will be someone like Glenn Hoddle – a Britisher but a manager with flair and technical nous. These creatures are as rare as a British footballer with full of wizardry and brilliant technical skill.

And that works for the national team too. Think of the last few successful British managers – old fogies Bobby Robson and Terry Venables.

It might not be the biggest story of 2008 in English football but this year has definitely seen a successful return of the good old- fashioned British manager.

Today the EPL is extremely popular in India and ESPN Star broadcasts half a dozen live games a week and airs numerous other related programs. And then there are a dozen football websites.

But back in 1992, we had neither. We relied on Brian Glanville’s last page articles in the The Sportstar (god bless them for that) and the occasional glimpse of recorded action in a sports program that was shown on DD at around 4.30 p.m on Sundays. I think it was called sports hour or something.

This logo was easliy identifiable in 1992

I was already a teenage football fan then and savoured these limit doses. For those of you who came later, John Brewin has written a very informative article about the 1992 premiership season. It’s a wonderful reminder of the fact that things weren’t always like they have been for the last ten odd-years. For starters there was no Big 4 of English football.

As a United fan, one of my favourite mental exercises is speculating, who the next United manager will be. I don’t want Fergie to step down or anything. On the contrary I have all the respect and admiration in the world for him – for all that he has done for the Club. It’s just that he is already 67 and someday soon he will have to go.

The speculation also stems from the reality that I have never seen a change of guard at Old Trafford in my football-watching life. United sides have always been such an embodiment of Sir Alex’s own personality and without him the club would probably be completely different from the one I dearly love. Therefore, the fact that something which I have never witnessed in my life is about happen and that the change will have far-reaching implications forces me to think about it very frequently.

How will life be without him

I and many others, I am sure, have often assumed that the next guy will be someone who has been associated with United as well as Fergie in the past. How can an outsider ever understand what it means and takes to be a Red Devil? After all, United are one of those rare big clubs which have maintained their old world spirit and identity in spite of all the corporatization of sport. And why not attempt some kind of continuity by bringing in someone who’s well indoctrinated in the ‘Ferguson way’

I want a Red Devil to take over

That the person should also have excellent managerial credentials is quite obviously an unconditional pre-requisite

There has been no shortage of suitable candidates – at least ones who have seemed suitable.

The list and the conjecturing started with ‘Captain Marvel’ – Bryan Robson – one of United’s greatest players as well as a legendary captain. He made a great start to his managerial life with Middlesbrough and I remember, once, how in spite of Boro beating United 3-2 in , I hadn’t felt bad – I had thought that the future United manager was coming along well. Sadly, save for some great Cup runs with Boro and later a relegation survival with West Brom, Robson has been a failure as a manager. And he’s had enough opportunities at various clubs to eliminate any elements of bad-luck. He clearly isn’t up to it.

The next really big hope was Roy Keane – another commanding mid-field general in the mould of Robson. His successes with Sunderland and his clear-talking and honest ways seemed like a fairy-tale. Just that he lacked the eye for talent and tactical nous so important for a manager. He has exited Sunderland with his head held high but his managerial pedigree in tatters. I expect him to give it another shot. But it will take a lot of success over a considerable period of time to exorcise the ghosts of his first stint and be considered again.

Another United legend and former captain in the fray is Steve Bruce. He’s had decent success with various clubs. But the problem is that he’s had too many clubs – he’s on his sixth one in ten years of managerial life – the exact antithesis of Fergie and United. Also in spite of such a long career he is still stuck with the smaller clubs – hasn’t even moved up a notch to the second rung of the premiership. It is more likely that he will end up becoming the next Harry Redknapp and not the next Fergie.

A candidate with a less glorified United connection but better managerial record is Celtic’s Gordan Strachan. A Red Devil from 1984-89, he has managed at a top British club for more than three years now. And remember, Sir Alex also came from a successful Scottish club. But then again, times are different now. How big is Scotland’s biggest club in today’s world – possibly smaller than even the likes of Man City and Tottenham. Also his association with Fergie was long ago and I doubt if he’s a true United disciple. And he is too much of a strict disciplinarian and there are doubts about his ability to handle big name players. Will rule him out as well.

Next in consideration is Mark Hughes – another crowd favourite at Old Trafford. As a manager he got the Welsh national side to overachieve and then had a solid stint with Blackburn. He’s bought smartly in the transfer market and has handled some massive egos pretty well. His appointment as Man City boss was another sign of his growing reputation. But the Man City job with a massive war-chest to boost could be the reason why he will probably never end up as United manager. He will either use the funds well and go onto achieve greater glory with City – in which case there will be no reason to leave for United if the opportunity came , or he will be a failure – in which case his stock as manager will fall and he won’t be considered at Old Trafford. That he manages United’s bitter rivals will be just a secondary point. Mark Hughes had all the right credentials and before his appointment as City manager he was probably way out in front in this race. Sadly he has discontinued running it.

Hughes’ successor in the Blackburn job, Paul Ince is another contender. He’s had a miserable stint in the premiership after success in the lower leagues. He still has an outside chance if he can revive Blackburn and have solid run for 4-5 years. Anything else and his chances are zilch.

There is another guy with a United connections who had a shot once upon a time but he is completely out of it now.

Steve McLaren never played for United but was an assistant to Sir Alex in the treble winning side of 1999. But we all know what happened when he became manager of England and now his stock has fallen so low that he coaches a nondescript Dutch side. I would kill myself if he ever became United manager.

That sadly is the end of the list. Amongst the currently active lot, I would rate Gary Neville as the best manager material. But he’s still playing. And it will take a long time for him to establish his managerial credentials. I don’t think Sir Alex can wait that long.

That leaves us with the hard truth that a Red Devil will not be replacing Sir Alex Ferguson whenever he decides to retire.

So much for continuity and finding someone who knows the ways of United.

By the way I just remembered about Joe Paterno. He’s 82 years old and has been coaching the football team at Penn State University for the last 42 years – and quite successfully too – he won the conference championships this year. Fergie’s just 67, right. So he could be in the job for another 15 years. Now, that will give me enough time to draw up another list of managerial hopefuls from the Red Devils community.

At United we never give up.

Are they as formidable defensively as they were last year?

In addition to being the champions in 2007-08, Man United were also the best team in the league, both, offensively and defensively. The scored the maximum goals and conceded the fewest – also ending up with the maximum number of clean sheets as well. The following table gives the goal scoring and conceding details of the top four. Man United led on all counts

2007-08 EPL Season

And now here’s the same table for the 2008-09 season so far. Numbers in brackets show the expected number had the clubs maintained last years averages. We are only 11 games into the season and the averages will change, but there is enough of an early trend to worry United fans and bring a cheer to their Chelsea counterparts

2008-09 EPL Season so far

United are still as good as last year in banging in the goals but their defense seems to be slipping. The numbers point to a clear fall in their defensive standards from last year. Their performances against Liverpool and Chelsea where they couldn’t defend one-goal leads corroborate what the numbers have to say. Last year, United were winning these games, holding on to one goal leads splendidly. Not so this year.

The other interesting thing shown by the numbers is the huge leap taken by Chelsea – both offensively and defensively. Liverpool have the same number of points, but Chelsea under Scolari have started doing what Abramovich always wanted – decimate the opposition with their attacking prowess. And at the same time they seem to have improved on their defense – supposed to be the highlight of Jose’s reign. Wonder what the great one has to say now

But more importantly, are we seeing a worrying trend for United?

What do you think?

This article was originally published on www.soccerlens.com