A Common Fan’s Sports Diary

At the beginning of the 2009-10 season, the Liverpool faithful had hoped that their team’s gradual progression back to the top of the Premiership would finally culminate in a league title. Instead it’s turned into a horror story of mammoth proportions. At the time of writing, Liverpool are on a three match losing streak and have four defeats in their opening nine premiership games – a statistic which makes them odds-on favourite not to win the league this year.

They have two crucial games coming up – a Champions League clash against Lyon and a premiership battle against bitter rivals Man United.

If the results in these two games don’t go in their favour, then it will open a whole new world of possibilities at Anfield, most of them frightening for the club faithful.

As a United fan, it gives me great pleasure to think of those possibilities and to estimate their odds. So without much ado, let’s play odds makers – All under the assumption that the next two games are not going to go as per plan for Liverpool.

What are the odds?

That Rafa Benitez is gone in a month’s time?

Even odds. With Rick Parry gone, Rafa has nobody to blame anymore. His stubborn refusal to change his zonal marking tactics will give extra fuel to his critics. His only saving grace will be the fact that the owners Gillett and Hicks are cheapsters who would rather continue with Rafa, than bear the cost of paying out his entire contract and getting a new manager, who would also want a fresh transfer kitty.

That Gillett and Hicks are gone before the end of the season?

2-1. another season without the league title and being forced to start all over again would be too much for the American owners. They are here for purely financial reasons and there is a good chance that Gillett and Hicks will decide to cut their losses and move on. There is interest from the Middle –east and if a serious offer comes through, Gillett and Hicks will take their bags and run.

That the sheikhs will take over at Anfield?

3-1. Just like the bad times will force the Americans to run, it will give the sheikhs a good time to make a move. Liverpool are hugely popular in the Middle- east and the sheikhs are one of the few with the financial muscle to buy a club as massive as Liverpool.  But there is an outside chance that an upstart Russian or someone from the South East Asia will stake a claim. I wouldn’t even rule out a bid from Anil Ambani.

That Torres will be gone by the end of the season?

10-1. depends on who takes over and where Benitez goes. If Benitez ends up at a big Spanish Club (read Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini fails to meet the expectations of Florentino Perez), then there is a massive chance that Torres will follow him.  Real can be expected to make an outrageous offer for Torres and in today’s cash-strapped times, few owners can refuse that.

That Alberto Aquilani will make less than five first team appearances for Liverpool?

6-1. Only Benitez knows why Aquilani was bought and if he goes there will be no one at Anfield to appreciate and understand the Italian. A new manager will be impatient and expect Alberto to make an immediate impression, failing which he will be sent on his way.

That Steven Gerrard will leave Liverpool in a couple of seasons?

20-1.The opportunity to bring back the league title to Anfield is Gerrard’s greatest driving force. With that opportunity gone, at least in the near future, coupled with the possible departure of close pal Torres, Gerrard’s resolve to spend his entire career at Anfield could finally break. But it’s still a long shot.

That Gerrard will one day join Man United?

10000-1. it’s almost impossible to imagine Gerrard in a Man United shirt but stranger things have happened in football.  Gerrard will have no shortage of suitors if he decides to leave and Fergie will be one of them.   It will only happen if he wants to stay in England and Chelsea and Arsenal don’t make a bid for him. A move to Old Trafford will tarnish his status in Liverpool lore and Gerrard will risk that only if he has absolutely no options left.

That Liverpool are the ones to drop out of the top four?

2-1. Liverpool look the most likely ones to drop out and the other three look safe bets to finish in the top four.  Unlike previous years, there are a bunch of strong challengers this year. But if Liverpool are knocked out Europe and the FA Cup early, then there is no way a challenger will usurp them this season.

That Jose Mourinho is the next boss at Anfield.

7-1. Jose’s the only EPL winning manager available and that will tempt Liverpool. If given an opportunity and a decent transfer budget, then the ‘Special One’ will not think twice about returning to his beloved premiership.

That an Italian is the next boss at Anfield?

10-1. Capello has turned England around and Trapattoni has worked wonders with the Irish. Previously, lesser Italians like Ranieri and Vialli have had decent stints at Chelsea. The Spanish experiment worked well, so why not try an Italian this time.  There are enough top class Italian managers available. My favourite would be Mancini. He has previously delivered at a league title – starved club.

That the strike pair of David Ngog and Andriy Voronin will start a game in the Premiership?

5-1. will be the poster moment for the slew of mediocre purchases made by Benitez. Wonder how many premiership defenders will be quaking in their boots at the sight of Voronin and Ngog? This could happen very soon if another striker gets injured or if Ryan Babel continues to disappoint.

That Liverpool will make a shock bid for Xabi Alonso?

5-1. they sold him for 16 million but by now they have realized how priceless he was. The chances of a bid depend on Alonso’s form at Real and the state of the Liverpool midfield. If Alonso disappoints, although it’s quite unlikely, then Liverpool might be encouraged to make a bid. It will also depend on whether Aquilani or any other future midfield signing can do all the unnoticed and under-appreciated little things that Alonso did.

That Benitez changes the zonal marking system?

10-1. most people at Anfield are critical of the zonal marking system. Until now Rafa was in a strong position and had his way. But what will he do if the defeats continue to pile on and the bosses give him an ultimatum – change the defensive system or move. Will he swallow his pride for the sake of continuing as Liverpool manager?

That Benitez joins another Premiership Club?

25-1. Abramovich could be tempted if Ancelotti fails to bring home the Champions League. Benitez’ tactical nous in European competition is well regarded. The other candidates could be Man City and Tottenham Hotspurs.  Both have money and ambition. Their current managers can take them into the top four but they will need somebody of the calibre of Benitez to aim higher. Rafa has enjoyed England and might stay back if the right gig came along.

That Liverpool win both games and this entire article is merely a fantasy exercise?

3-1. Liverpool always come through when the chips are down. Plain and simple.

A high-flying side chasing multiple titles takes on a hated adversary in a high-profile clash at home. Gets an early goal and it looks as if they will coast to victory. Their opponents slowly claw back into the game and then literally blow them away, tearing their defence to smithereens. A historic win for the opposition and a morale crushing defeat for the high-flyers – one which brings them crashing down to earth.

Liverpool did this to Man Utd last month and look what’s happened to the Champions ever since – there is no confidence in the side, no rhythm in attack and tentative is a euphemism for their defence.
Liverpool were dealt an almost identical blow last night by their hated ECL rivals, Chelsea. The Old Trafford triumph gave a massive boost to the Merseysiders and turned the EPL title race back into a two horse one. Chelsea will get a similar lift from their conquest of Liverpool and the possibility of the race turning into a three –way chase cannot be ruled out.

Crash-landings like these are crushing and it is difficult to see Liverpool escaping without any scars.

The Legend of Guus

Another chapter was added to the storied career of Guus Hiddink. The same Chelsea side were beaten by both Man Utd and Liverpool, not too long ago. And look what they have done now. It was easily the most convincing performance by either side in the five year history of Liverpool-Chelsea clashes in the Champions League. The English FA were undecided on whether to hire the Dutchman when he was available and their dithering and indecisiveness pissed him off. Luckily for them, they managed to hire Capello. What are odds of Hiddink signing a long-term contract at Stamford Bridge?

Déjà Vu for United

While Liverpool were getting a taste of their own medicine, Man Utd relived the horrors of one of their worst European nights. And I am not talking of the defeat to Porto in 2004. I am referring instead to the 2-2 draw they suffered at Old Trafford against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League semis in 2002. That year also, Utd had got the luck of the draw, facing an unfancied Bayer side in the semis.

Unfortunately for them, the Germans passed the ball around beautifully and almost played United off the park. United were horrible in defence and had no answers to the trio of Ballack, Basturk and Bernd Schneider, just about escaping with a draw. And if they need any more bad tidings, they drew 1-1 in the return leg and crashed out of the competition, after conceding another late goal.

A silver lining in the dark cloud

Liverpool have a near impossible task of overturning the first leg deficit. They have a far better chance of challenging for the League title. One can argue that the return leg clash is now less important than the remaining premiership fixtures. So how about resting their big guns and saving them for the more important games instead. I am sure the Anfield faithful will not mind as long as it improves their chances of winning the league. Man Utd on the other hand have a realistic chance of making the semis and cannot afford their players any such luxury. The premiership race could come down to how much hunger and energy the players of the two teams have in the final stretch. Thanks to the defeat Liverpool are actually better placed on that front than United. The crushing defeat could well be a blessing in disguise.

So who are the favourites?

As we have seen, form in the ECL can change from one round to the other. So it is still too early to predict the champion. But which was the most impressive side in the first leg games?

Barcelona enhanced their reputation as favourites with a brilliant attacking display at the Nou Camp. But in spite of that virtuoso performance, the laurel of the best side rests with Chelsea; for the sheer tenacity and mental fortitude that they displayed. Anfield is an intimidating fortress on European nights and it requires supreme self belief for a visiting side to not just recover from an early but totally impose their dominance on the game. Attacking firepower is great to have but it is the self belief and mental strength which will count for more in the final reckoning. And that is why Chelsea look best equipped to go all the way

This article on goal.com is a real eye opener. I always thought that young Asians in Britain would be totally obsessed with Man Utd and Arsenal. After all these two clubs have had the most success in the modern day premiership and have played a most wonderful brand of attacking football for most part (except for the George Graham years at Highbury).

The young Asian has spent most of his growing up years watching the glory of the Red Devils and the Gunners– and the mediocrity of Liverpool – without a title in the last 18 years. There should be absolutely no reason to root for Liverpool – it was a club their fathers cheered for back in the glory days of the 70’s and 80’s. Surely these kids who have grown up in Britain (unlike their parents who were born in Asia and then came over) have a mind of their own and can make their own decisions when it comes to club loyalties.

It seems they don’t and for good reason too. It seems there was more to the Liverpool sides of the 70’s and 80’s than just football success. It had something which the British Asian identified with back then – and as a result they forged a bond with the club which went beyond success on the pitch. A relationship so deep that even the next generation could not break away from it. Utd and Arsenal might have the dazzle and the trophies but they do not have what Liverpool had in the 70’s – and hence cannot woo the young British Asian. Read the article to know more about what Liverpool had back then.