A Common Fan’s Sports Diary

What are the odds that Rafa's time at Anfield is over?

At the beginning of the 2009-10 season, the Liverpool faithful had hoped that their team’s gradual progression back to the top of the Premiership would finally culminate in a league title. Instead it’s turned into a horror story of mammoth proportions. At the time of writing, Liverpool are on a three match losing streak and have four defeats in their opening nine premiership games – a statistic which makes them odds-on favourite not to win the league this year.

They have two crucial games coming up – a Champions League clash against Lyon and a premiership battle against bitter rivals Man United.

If the results in these two games don’t go in their favour, then it will open a whole new world of possibilities at Anfield, most of them frightening for the club faithful.

As a United fan, it gives me great pleasure to think of those possibilities and to estimate their odds. So without much ado, let’s play odds makers – All under the assumption that the next two games are not going to go as per plan for Liverpool.

What are the odds?

That Rafa Benitez is gone in a month’s time?

Even odds. With Rick Parry gone, Rafa has nobody to blame anymore. His stubborn refusal to change his zonal marking tactics will give extra fuel to his critics. His only saving grace will be the fact that the owners Gillett and Hicks are cheapsters who would rather continue with Rafa, than bear the cost of paying out his entire contract and getting a new manager, who would also want a fresh transfer kitty.

That Gillett and Hicks are gone before the end of the season?

2-1. another season without the league title and being forced to start all over again would be too much for the American owners. They are here for purely financial reasons and there is a good chance that Gillett and Hicks will decide to cut their losses and move on. There is interest from the Middle –east and if a serious offer comes through, Gillett and Hicks will take their bags and run.

That the sheikhs will take over at Anfield?

3-1. Just like the bad times will force the Americans to run, it will give the sheikhs a good time to make a move. Liverpool are hugely popular in the Middle- east and the sheikhs are one of the few with the financial muscle to buy a club as massive as Liverpool.  But there is an outside chance that an upstart Russian or someone from the South East Asia will stake a claim. I wouldn’t even rule out a bid from Anil Ambani.

That Torres will be gone by the end of the season?

10-1. depends on who takes over and where Benitez goes. If Benitez ends up at a big Spanish Club (read Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini fails to meet the expectations of Florentino Perez), then there is a massive chance that Torres will follow him.  Real can be expected to make an outrageous offer for Torres and in today’s cash-strapped times, few owners can refuse that.

Will they be standing together a year from now?

That Alberto Aquilani will make less than five first team appearances for Liverpool?

6-1. Only Benitez knows why Aquilani was bought and if he goes there will be no one at Anfield to appreciate and understand the Italian. A new manager will be impatient and expect Alberto to make an immediate impression, failing which he will be sent on his way.

What are the chances they are re-united at another club?

That Steven Gerrard will leave Liverpool in a couple of seasons?

20-1.The opportunity to bring back the league title to Anfield is Gerrard’s greatest driving force. With that opportunity gone, at least in the near future, coupled with the possible departure of close pal Torres, Gerrard’s resolve to spend his entire career at Anfield could finally break. But it’s still a long shot.

That Gerrard will one day join Man United?

10000-1. it’s almost impossible to imagine Gerrard in a Man United shirt but stranger things have happened in football.  Gerrard will have no shortage of suitors if he decides to leave and Fergie will be one of them.   It will only happen if he wants to stay in England and Chelsea and Arsenal don’t make a bid for him. A move to Old Trafford will tarnish his status in Liverpool lore and Gerrard will risk that only if he has absolutely no options left.

That Liverpool are the ones to drop out of the top four?

2-1. Liverpool look the most likely ones to drop out and the other three look safe bets to finish in the top four.  Unlike previous years, there are a bunch of strong challengers this year. But if Liverpool are knocked out Europe and the FA Cup early, then there is no way a challenger will usurp them this season.

That Jose Mourinho is the next boss at Anfield.

7-1. Jose’s the only EPL winning manager available and that will tempt Liverpool. If given an opportunity and a decent transfer budget, then the ‘Special One’ will not think twice about returning to his beloved premiership.

That an Italian is the next boss at Anfield?

10-1. Capello has turned England around and Trapattoni has worked wonders with the Irish. Previously, lesser Italians like Ranieri and Vialli have had decent stints at Chelsea. The Spanish experiment worked well, so why not try an Italian this time.  There are enough top class Italian managers available. My favourite would be Mancini. He has previously delivered at a league title – starved club.

That the strike pair of David Ngog and Andriy Voronin will start a game in the Premiership?

5-1. will be the poster moment for the slew of mediocre purchases made by Benitez. Wonder how many premiership defenders will be quaking in their boots at the sight of Voronin and Ngog? This could happen very soon if another striker gets injured or if Ryan Babel continues to disappoint.

That Liverpool will make a shock bid for Xabi Alonso?

5-1. they sold him for 16 million but by now they have realized how priceless he was. The chances of a bid depend on Alonso’s form at Real and the state of the Liverpool midfield. If Alonso disappoints, although it’s quite unlikely, then Liverpool might be encouraged to make a bid. It will also depend on whether Aquilani or any other future midfield signing can do all the unnoticed and under-appreciated little things that Alonso did.

That Benitez changes the zonal marking system?

10-1. most people at Anfield are critical of the zonal marking system. Until now Rafa was in a strong position and had his way. But what will he do if the defeats continue to pile on and the bosses give him an ultimatum – change the defensive system or move. Will he swallow his pride for the sake of continuing as Liverpool manager?

That Benitez joins another Premiership Club?

25-1. Abramovich could be tempted if Ancelotti fails to bring home the Champions League. Benitez’ tactical nous in European competition is well regarded. The other candidates could be Man City and Tottenham Hotspurs.  Both have money and ambition. Their current managers can take them into the top four but they will need somebody of the calibre of Benitez to aim higher. Rafa has enjoyed England and might stay back if the right gig came along.

That Liverpool win both games and this entire article is merely a fantasy exercise?

3-1. Liverpool always come through when the chips are down. Plain and simple.

Rafa's finally figured out the premiership puzzle

Think about it

The EPL is no longer a two horse race
Except for the occasional challenge offered by Arsenal, the fight for the title has largely come down to Manchester United and Chelsea these last few years. This year it’s a three horse race although Arsenal supporters would beg to differ. We are already in January – the season is 21 games old and Liverpool’s challenge hasn’t fizzled out yet. And it’s not just the points that they have accumulated, they have also managed to alter their fortunes against the other members of the old Big 4, winning both against Chelsea and United

There is no more a top 4
This has lasted even longer. Not since the time Bobby Robson was managing Newcastle, has a club looked so capable of breaking the big 4 hegemony. And again Aston Villa have not just collected points against the lower sides while struggling against the big boys. They have managed to stand up to them – in fact they have had Arsenal’s number, winning away and drawing at home. Another measure of their growing stature is the fact that some of their players like Agbanlahor and Barry could easily fit into any of the top 4 sides.

Promoted sides like Hull have had lots of moments to cheer

There are no clear cut poor teams
There are no favourites to go down this year. The promoted teams have played well and all three could very well stay up this season. The bottom three keeps changing every now and then. Teams like Tottenham, Sunderland, West Ham, Newcastle, Man City, Bolton and Stoke have all been near the relegation mark but have then hauled themselves up with a good run. The difference between number 11 Newcastle and number 20 West Brom is just 5 points and they had had the same number of wins. One bad run and the 11th placed team could be at the bottom. Struggling teams like Tottenham, Blackburn and West Ham have all turned their fortunes around with managerial changes. The absence of the usual whipping boys has made the premiership far more interesting

The domination of the top 4 has been reduced
In seasons gone by, the big 4 could just romp through against sides in the lower half of the table. They could rest their big guns and still stroll through for a win. Not anymore. The big sides have had it far more difficult, and that goes for home games as well. The likes of West Ham and Newcastle have drawn away against the big sides while they were still in relegation territory. While the draw percentage for the big boys has marginally increased to 29% from 265 in 2007-08 and 23% in 2008-09, there have been a lot of closely fought games where the big club has just eked out a win.

Managers like Harry have ensured that teams haven't struggled for too long

The middle of the table is also far more interesting
The games among the second rung sides have been far more watchable this year. I have started looking forward to games like Tottenham – West Ham, Man City- Wigan and Newcastle- Everton – something that I wouldn’t have last year. It is again owing to the greater balance of power amongst these sides, that, there have been lots more of closely fought encounters with last minute drama. You could pick any two sides out of Tottenham, Hull, Newcastle, Wigan, West Ham, Portsmouth, Fulham, Man City and Middlesbrough and expect a great game where the result could go either way. In a way, the early burst of manager sackings have helped – clubs haven’t continued to struggle for too long. New managers have come in turned things around quickly.

I am loving it. What about you?

The British Bulldog - back in control

The appointment of Fabio Capello was a telling blow to the pride of British football – a nation which once prided itself on having invented and then taught the game to the world had fallen on really bad times –so much so that they had no option but to depend on a foreigner to manage their national side. They had had a foreigner previously in Eriksson but the situation was far more desperate this time. A far cry from the days when British managers where much sought after.

The decline had already been evident in the domestic game – 3 of the top 4 clubs in the English premiership have been managed by foreigners for quite some time now. And others like Tottenham had also joined the fray. Considering the multi-cultural nature of the premiership, a fair sprinkling of foreigners is expected in the managerial ranks but suddenly no British manager seemed to be contending for the top jobs – in England or elsewhere.

The rot has been stemmed in 2008 and now the good old British manager is back in business. It started with the renaissance of Fulham under Roy Hodgson. And then Harry Redknapp showed with Tottenham that the British still knew some tricks that the Spanish (Juande Ramos) didn’t. The good showing continued with Joe Kinnear and Newcastle and although it is still early days, Blackburn already looks a different side under Big Sam Allardyce.

All of them truly epitomize what has traditionally been the strength of the British manager – their bulldog ways. They might not know the fancy tricks of modern football and lack the technical flair of continental managers but are tactically sound and know how to rally the men and rough it out. That most of the younger British managers like Roy Keane and Paul Ince were hopelessly bad is a corollary of the bulldog theory – quite obviously this style cannot be learnt in the coaching classroom – it comes with years of learning on the job. And hence the fledgling managers like Keane and Ince, who were still not fully versed in the good old British way, struggled miserably. Occasionally there will be someone like Glenn Hoddle – a Britisher but a manager with flair and technical nous. These creatures are as rare as a British footballer with full of wizardry and brilliant technical skill.

And that works for the national team too. Think of the last few successful British managers – old fogies Bobby Robson and Terry Venables.

It might not be the biggest story of 2008 in English football but this year has definitely seen a successful return of the good old- fashioned British manager.

1. There’s absolutely nothing to see on ESPN Star till then – As mentioned in a previous post (My season of misery begins), the sporting action this summer is the perfect recipe for a round of forty winks. The return of the premiership in August will resuscitate all the bored to death sports fans. These summer days seem to go on forever.
2. For the blossoming of the Chelsea – Man United rivalry – Man United have successfully broken Chelsea’s stranglehold on the premiership and shaken them out their belief that the premiership was a one horse race. Expect a full fledged rivalry next season, with Chelsea more determined than ever to impose their authority and Man United confident in their belief that they have in terms of heart and passion, what they lack in finances, to match their London rivals. While Chelsea are going to war with wholesale changes in the squad, Man United are looking to make a few strategic additions (One in the form of Owen Hergreaves is already on the way). This could well become the British version of Real Madrid- Barcelona.
3. For Liverpool and Arsenal to finally come to the party – I will call this the ‘Cold War’ of Britain. Nothing stimulates a Yankee, like the sight of a Russian. Just ask Malcolm Glazer of Man United about it. The new American owners of Liverpool and Arsenal (as I write this, the Arsenal chairman has finally agreed to discuss a take over. Trust me, Stan Kroenke will be in charge by the start of the new season) will go all out to win the title and hold no dollars back. Just to give you an idea of their financial muscle; Tom Hicks of Liverpool gave baseballer Alex Rodriguez the most expensive professional contract of 252 million dollars and Arsenal hopeful Kroenke recently broke the bank to sign Allen Iverson in the NBA.
4. For the second coming of Michael Chopra – Step aside Baichung Bhutia. Michael Chopra is by far the best known footballer of Indian origin. Groomed as the successor to Alan Shearer at Newcastle, his first stint in the premiership was a major disappointment. He went down a division with Cardiff City, where he has scored goals galore. A lot of premiership clubs are interested in him and I can’t wait for him to become the first Indian to score in the premiership.
5. For the return of Roy Keane – For all their success this season, Man United still miss the leadership and combative spirit of Roy Keane (as was evident in their shambolic display against Milan). He returns this season, albeit not as a player but as a manager, having earned his managerial spurs with Sunderland (he took the club from bottom after six games, to league 1 champions at the end). The fortunes of Sunderland will be closely followed in the coming season; a successful one firmly establishing ‘Keano’ as the likely successor to ‘Fergie’ at Old Trafford.
6. For the ‘Carlos Tevez’ movie to begin (having seen the trailer last season) – The Argentinean arrived after the mid term break, took a while to settle down and then exploded towards the end; single-handedly leading West Ham to 8 wins in their last 10 games. All the top clubs are chasing him, and if he can carry on in 2007-08 from where left off in 2006-07, the likes of Ronaldo and Gerrard can kiss the ‘PFA best player’ award goodbye.
7. To raise a toast to the new ‘Asian’ invasion of England – While the Yanks are running riot, an Asian is making a conquest of his own. Former Thai premier, Thaksin Shinawatra is close to taking over Manchester City. Our very own Lakshmi Mittal already owns the CSKA Sofia team in Bulgaria. I pray that he does an ‘Arcelor’ on one of the English clubs as well. And if he can close the deal on 15th August, I suggest we give him the Bharat Ratna this year.

What do you do when you have 20 billion dollars in the bank and have already been responsible for a watershed moment in the history of mankind? Well, in the case of Paul Allen; the often forgotten co-founder of Microsoft, you buy sports teams.

The reclusive Allen already owns his hometown Seattle Seahawks in the National Football League (the american variety) and the Portland Trail Blazers in the National Basketball Association, and now his sights are firmly set on Southampton FC in the English first division.

For someone who has displayed sound business acumen in building the biggest IT company in the world, his sports teams leave a lot to be desired. He has often been called the ‘worst team owner in all sports’. He pumped in millions of dollars in the Trail Blazers, but the only title they have earned in his tenure, is the sobriquet of ‘The Jail Blazers’ (for the criminal record of the players). Their pathetic performances caused their owner to put the team up for sale. Sadly for Paul, he couldn’t find a single buyer.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been earning the blessings of all the unemployed (read deemed useless by all the other teams) players by offering them wealthy contracts. Their enviable losing record has ensured that the city of Seattle won’t be putting up a statue of their most famous son anytime soon.

The interest in Southampton follows a recent trend of American sports tycoons buying English football clubs. The clubs have largely benefited from the cash infusion, helping change the ‘Yankee upstart’ image of the Americans in the UK. Southampton’s proud tradition has taken a massive beating; their team has been languishing in the second tier of English football for quite some time now. Paul Allen has one last chance with Southampton. His philanthropy for the football club could do for him, what the Gates Foundation does for good friend Bill Gates – atonement for all their sins (the sporting ones in Paul’s case).