A Common Fan’s Sports Diary

Xavi and Andres Iniesta kept Cesc Fabregas and Xabi Alonso out of the Spanish starting eleven during their triumph in Euro 2008. Do we expect to see anything different in the World Cup or after that?

The simple answer is no, because there is no point in changing a winning formula, especially in the case of Spain, who rarely if ever get their formula right. Going by that logic, Alonso and Fabregas will continue to warm the benches, at the 2010 World Cup and beyond, unless the Barcelona pair suffers a major loss in form.

The loss in form doesn’t look like happening anytime soon. Xavi was the player of the tournament at Euro 2008 and has since enhanced his reputation to become arguably the best central midfielder in Europe.

And while Iniesta might be inferior to Fabregas, he has something special which the Arsenal captain doesn’t have: a chemistry with Xavi; borne out of all the match-practice they get playing together in the same position for Barcelona. Why would you break a pairing which has worked on their understanding throughout the year and is a proven alliance, for another one which has very little time to find its bearings?

Therefore, Fabregas and Alonso can either wait for Xavi or Iniesta to suffer a major loss in form

or

start to get some match-practice as a pair themselves. They can either join hands with one another – that will happen if Cesc decides to move to Real. If that happens then the pair of Alonso and Fabregas would get a chance to prove to the whole of Spain that they are better than the Barcelona pair, when they lock horns in the the El Clasico. If they take that chance then great, else they will atleast not have reason to complain.

But its unlikely that Cesc will move to Real. The team is a mess and more importantly, he is a Catalan and proud one at that.

He could go to Barcelona instead. The club is his natural home and they are his long time suitors. Even Xavi has publicly appealed to him to move to Barca. He will get to join on his own terms and command a starting place immediately.

That will give him a chance to pair up with Xavi. He will then get all the time to develop a chemistry with Xavi and show to the entire world, what a fine mid field pair they can be. Once that happens, its only a matter of time before they start for Spain together.

He might not be able to do that before the South Africa World Cup but he has a long time left in the game and lots of international matches to play. The current Spanish squad is young and they will be good for years to come. For all the glory Cesc Fabregas wins at club level, his career will be unfulfilled if he doesn’t achieve the same at international level. And for him to even start doing that, he needs to make a move to Spain sometime really soon.

At the beginning of the 2009-10 season, the Liverpool faithful had hoped that their team’s gradual progression back to the top of the Premiership would finally culminate in a league title. Instead it’s turned into a horror story of mammoth proportions. At the time of writing, Liverpool are on a three match losing streak and have four defeats in their opening nine premiership games – a statistic which makes them odds-on favourite not to win the league this year.

They have two crucial games coming up – a Champions League clash against Lyon and a premiership battle against bitter rivals Man United.

If the results in these two games don’t go in their favour, then it will open a whole new world of possibilities at Anfield, most of them frightening for the club faithful.

As a United fan, it gives me great pleasure to think of those possibilities and to estimate their odds. So without much ado, let’s play odds makers – All under the assumption that the next two games are not going to go as per plan for Liverpool.

What are the odds?

That Rafa Benitez is gone in a month’s time?

Even odds. With Rick Parry gone, Rafa has nobody to blame anymore. His stubborn refusal to change his zonal marking tactics will give extra fuel to his critics. His only saving grace will be the fact that the owners Gillett and Hicks are cheapsters who would rather continue with Rafa, than bear the cost of paying out his entire contract and getting a new manager, who would also want a fresh transfer kitty.

That Gillett and Hicks are gone before the end of the season?

2-1. another season without the league title and being forced to start all over again would be too much for the American owners. They are here for purely financial reasons and there is a good chance that Gillett and Hicks will decide to cut their losses and move on. There is interest from the Middle –east and if a serious offer comes through, Gillett and Hicks will take their bags and run.

That the sheikhs will take over at Anfield?

3-1. Just like the bad times will force the Americans to run, it will give the sheikhs a good time to make a move. Liverpool are hugely popular in the Middle- east and the sheikhs are one of the few with the financial muscle to buy a club as massive as Liverpool.  But there is an outside chance that an upstart Russian or someone from the South East Asia will stake a claim. I wouldn’t even rule out a bid from Anil Ambani.

That Torres will be gone by the end of the season?

10-1. depends on who takes over and where Benitez goes. If Benitez ends up at a big Spanish Club (read Real Madrid if Manuel Pellegrini fails to meet the expectations of Florentino Perez), then there is a massive chance that Torres will follow him.  Real can be expected to make an outrageous offer for Torres and in today’s cash-strapped times, few owners can refuse that.

That Alberto Aquilani will make less than five first team appearances for Liverpool?

6-1. Only Benitez knows why Aquilani was bought and if he goes there will be no one at Anfield to appreciate and understand the Italian. A new manager will be impatient and expect Alberto to make an immediate impression, failing which he will be sent on his way.

That Steven Gerrard will leave Liverpool in a couple of seasons?

20-1.The opportunity to bring back the league title to Anfield is Gerrard’s greatest driving force. With that opportunity gone, at least in the near future, coupled with the possible departure of close pal Torres, Gerrard’s resolve to spend his entire career at Anfield could finally break. But it’s still a long shot.

That Gerrard will one day join Man United?

10000-1. it’s almost impossible to imagine Gerrard in a Man United shirt but stranger things have happened in football.  Gerrard will have no shortage of suitors if he decides to leave and Fergie will be one of them.   It will only happen if he wants to stay in England and Chelsea and Arsenal don’t make a bid for him. A move to Old Trafford will tarnish his status in Liverpool lore and Gerrard will risk that only if he has absolutely no options left.

That Liverpool are the ones to drop out of the top four?

2-1. Liverpool look the most likely ones to drop out and the other three look safe bets to finish in the top four.  Unlike previous years, there are a bunch of strong challengers this year. But if Liverpool are knocked out Europe and the FA Cup early, then there is no way a challenger will usurp them this season.

That Jose Mourinho is the next boss at Anfield.

7-1. Jose’s the only EPL winning manager available and that will tempt Liverpool. If given an opportunity and a decent transfer budget, then the ‘Special One’ will not think twice about returning to his beloved premiership.

That an Italian is the next boss at Anfield?

10-1. Capello has turned England around and Trapattoni has worked wonders with the Irish. Previously, lesser Italians like Ranieri and Vialli have had decent stints at Chelsea. The Spanish experiment worked well, so why not try an Italian this time.  There are enough top class Italian managers available. My favourite would be Mancini. He has previously delivered at a league title – starved club.

That the strike pair of David Ngog and Andriy Voronin will start a game in the Premiership?

5-1. will be the poster moment for the slew of mediocre purchases made by Benitez. Wonder how many premiership defenders will be quaking in their boots at the sight of Voronin and Ngog? This could happen very soon if another striker gets injured or if Ryan Babel continues to disappoint.

That Liverpool will make a shock bid for Xabi Alonso?

5-1. they sold him for 16 million but by now they have realized how priceless he was. The chances of a bid depend on Alonso’s form at Real and the state of the Liverpool midfield. If Alonso disappoints, although it’s quite unlikely, then Liverpool might be encouraged to make a bid. It will also depend on whether Aquilani or any other future midfield signing can do all the unnoticed and under-appreciated little things that Alonso did.

That Benitez changes the zonal marking system?

10-1. most people at Anfield are critical of the zonal marking system. Until now Rafa was in a strong position and had his way. But what will he do if the defeats continue to pile on and the bosses give him an ultimatum – change the defensive system or move. Will he swallow his pride for the sake of continuing as Liverpool manager?

That Benitez joins another Premiership Club?

25-1. Abramovich could be tempted if Ancelotti fails to bring home the Champions League. Benitez’ tactical nous in European competition is well regarded. The other candidates could be Man City and Tottenham Hotspurs.  Both have money and ambition. Their current managers can take them into the top four but they will need somebody of the calibre of Benitez to aim higher. Rafa has enjoyed England and might stay back if the right gig came along.

That Liverpool win both games and this entire article is merely a fantasy exercise?

3-1. Liverpool always come through when the chips are down. Plain and simple.